On Friday, Russia and Ukraine concluded a UN agreement This means that cargo ships carrying grain from three ports in Ukraine must ensure safe passage through the Black Sea. It should also make it easier for Russia to export grain and fertilizer.
But less than 12 hours after the agreement was signed, Russia directed one Robot attack on an important port in Odessaone of the transport hubs designated for export.
The attack should be seen against the backdrop of Russia’s strategy to economically starve Ukraine, according to Oscar Johnson.
– Important civil and economic infrastructure was bombed, then a blockade was imposed on exports across the Black Sea, and a very important part is exports of grain and fertilizer, 90 percent of which goes to the sea, says Johnson.
That Russia would have an interest in abandoning its strategy of economically starving Ukraine for just a simple sanctions relief and to be able to export more of the same fertilizer, which was included in the agreement, I find hard to piece together, continues.
Want to be a “constructive party”
According to Johnson, why Russia entered into the agreement from the start, even though it had no intention of complying with it, could have several explanations. One possible explanation is that they want to present themselves as a “constructive party”.
Another possible explanation is that they have an interest in clearing the mines that Ukraine has placed in the Black Sea, to prevent Russian landing attacks.
– If you can now see which routes Ukrainian ships take, you will get a picture of where there are no mines, which can be used for offensive purposes.
Russian description ‘unlikely’
Russia initially denied that they had carried out the attack. But on Sunday, it looked different when Moscow confirmed that it was the Russian military that was really behind it. He described the attack as targeting military targets, specifically a docked warship and weapons depots containing weapons from the United States.
According to Johnson, this description is “unlikely”.
– From the Ukrainian side, they say it is a port infrastructure and possibly a pumping station. Then you have to put it in light of the fact that there is a massive fuel shortage in Ukraine. It seems likely that this is what was attacked.
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