Countries around the world aim to keep temperature rise below 1.5 degrees.
That goal could collapse as early as this year, according to a new report.
The Berkeley Earth Climate Institute now believes temperatures are more likely to reach 1.5 degrees in 2023 – rather than the other way around.
And next year could be worse.
There is nothing more dramatic and exciting to study these days than a dry, flat curve institute.
The temperature in August was 1.68 degrees warmer than the average between 1850 and 1900. That’s a big jump and means last month was by far the warmest August on record.
If you just look at the planet’s land areas, they’ve been much warmer than that – so the temperature rise is 2.27 degrees in August.
Analysis of volcanic eruptions
When the authors of the report at Berkeley Earth analyze what contributed to the temperature rise, it becomes really interesting, because here they also look at two causes that are usually the main arguments of so-called climate skeptics – solar radiation and the volcanic eruption in Honga Tonga.
Honga Tonga volcano sent 150 million tons of water vapor into the stratosphere during its January 2022 eruption.
Berkeley Earth can report that the contribution of both Honga Tonga and solar activity to global warming is modest, though not entirely insignificant – calculations have been made that show, for example, that a volcanic eruption would be due to about 0.035 degrees. (Solar activity is much less).
However, the institute states that the main causes of rising temperatures lie in global warming caused by human activity and the El Niño weather phenomenon.
55 percent risk
The researchers also point out that all of this combined means there is now a 55 percent risk that 2023 will be the year we exceed 1.5 degrees.
In this case, the goal set in Paris will be dashed – even if it does not waver in one year, but it is about keeping temperature rises below 1.5 degrees in the long term.
But you have to keep in mind that the second year of the El Niño cycle is usually the warmest. Therefore, there is a great risk that next year will be even hotter.
Will this have any global political consequences?
On the verge of collapse
The world is on the verge of complete collapse in its climate action.
Although some progress has been made, but not enough, within the European Union, the picture is different globally. The ever-talked-about “green transition” is being consumed by our ever-increasing energy needs.
Take India, the most populous country in the world: coal today accounts for more than 70% of electricity supplies. Due to the increasing population and growing economy, the demand for coal will also increase 40 percent by 2030 – From 900 to 1500 million tons.
But why are Indians to blame? Its CO2 emissions of two tons per capita are much lower than Sweden’s 3.5 or 7.5 tons, depending on whether consumption-based emissions are included or not. Historical emissions are nothing to brag about either, especially when compared to, say, the United States.
The ability, or inability, to meet this challenge determines the future for all of us.
The risk of exceeding the 1.5 degree limit already this year is a clear reminder of how short time is.
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