How Kamala Harris Affected Democrats' Election Chances

Sedan Joe Biden has announced his resignation, and the pendulum has swung back to the Democrats. After long trailing Republican nominee Donald Trump in the polls, the outlook now looks noticeably brighter for the party.

Harris leads Trump at 43.8 percent, with 46.4 percent. FiveThirtyEight's latest compilation On the state of national opinion. In four of the six major wave states, which are unpredictable, she is also leading. In Georgia and Nevada, Trump is ahead by about one percentage point.

The agreement begins

That lead has given Democrats new hope, but the gaps between Harris and Trump are still very small — often just a few percentage points.

The Democratic National Convention begins Monday and runs through Aug. 22. In Chicago, the party's fellow party members will end up together behind Harris and her horse husband, Tim Walz.

The enthusiasm surrounding Harris’s nomination has been high in his camp, and while this week’s convention will likely mean another boost to public opinion, the party shouldn’t claim victory in advance, says Jan Hallenberg, professor emeritus of political science.

“But I think it will take a lot for her position to be really undermined,” he says.

Harris's criticism

Harris has been criticized for not giving a single interview since Biden’s withdrawal and for being vague about what she actually wants to do as president. The party’s economic platform was only introduced on Friday, nearly four weeks after she was appointed.

The plan includes, among other things: Tax deductions for parents And a cap on food prices. It’s not a big departure from Biden’s economic policy. However, it could be vulnerable to Republican attack, Hallenberg says.

– She can be portrayed as very liberal.

The position can be weakened.

But Harris clearly has a better chance of winning the presidency than Biden. Statistician Nate Silver had Biden at just under a 27 percent chance of winning shortly before he dropped out. Harris’s odds are now at 54 percent, Silver says.

2016 gave silver But Hillary Clinton has a 71 percent chance of winning. And as you know, it didn't work out that way.

The election is still far from over, and a lot could happen between now and November.

– For example, if she removes herself from the September 10 election debate, her position could be weakened, says Jan Hallenberg.