Analysis: Putin's unpredictable 'lover': Joe Biden

Who is better for us, Biden or Trump? The question was posed on Russian television on Wednesday, and the answer came quickly from Putin: Biden.

– He has more experience, – said the Russian president.

– He is a predictable man and an old-school politician.

Putin's dream of Donald Trump once again carrying the mantle of the American presidency is heard so often that it has almost become a kind of obvious thing. Didn't Trump say as recently as this weekend that he encouraged Russia as president to defeat NATO members? Therefore, perhaps one or two people were surprised by Putin's answer.

“Baby” is unexpected

For anyone who happened to be in Moscow during the 2016 US elections, things looked a little different. Ostensibly, Russian media figures and politicians can be seen celebrating Trump's victory with Soviet bubbles.

But behind closed doors, officials could be heard muttering annoyance about the chaos in Washington and asking Western reporters who to call for information from esteemed American partners.

Naturally, it was hoped that Trump would do what the Kremlin wanted. But the pious hopes were drowned out by anxiety and pain due to the unpredictability of the White House.

Russia is at its strongest strategically when the other side acts measuredly in accordance with the “liberal international order” and its norms. Rules that Russia may consider are suggestions, not rules.

The president decides

This does not mean that only one picture is correct. A common mistake people make is to look at Russia and Russian politics as a whole, where everyone is heading in the same direction. “What does Russia really want from this?” I'm often asked about individual cases in which a journalist has been arrested or a hateful voice has been harmed.

In fact, people in different parts of the state apparatus think, want or hope for different things. Their wills may compete or even clash.

Major decisions are made regardless of the “leader” and his inner circle without boring things like a free popular report or a free parliament.

Everyone chooses their own poutine

Sometimes Russia acts mostly as a surface onto which various assumptions can be projected. For those who don't like Putin or Trump, it's easy to assume they like each other. For those who share the views of American right-wing populist media personality Tucker Carlson, it is easy to paint a picture of Putin as more than they would like their foreign idol to be.

The interview itself was apparently a failure because Carlson wanted a different Putin than the one he met. Carlson seems to want to talk about identity politics and “traditional values.” What his fans care about and see Putin as their hero. Putin wanted to lecture on his ideologically chosen view of history in which Russia is the eternal victim and Ukraine is a lost country.

Putin did not like Tucker Carlson

The Russian president also did not appear to be immediately impressed by Carlson's intellectual abilities. In the same interview that addressed the question about Biden and Trump, Putin dismissed Carlson's interview as ridiculous. He was disappointed that the questions were not harder. If Putin really wanted to have a barbecue, he could have ordered one from his state television.

But neither Carlson nor the interview with the American candidates allowed us to know what Putin actually thinks. We only know what he says, which is something else. Therefore, both Biden and Trump can take Putin's words with a grain of salt.