Finland’s entry into NATO: Erdogan has another card to play

Sweden no longer sides with Finland in the NATO operation. The fact that the neighboring country is now an official member of the Defense Alliance changes the terms of the Swedish request.

– Türkiye has now played its only card and now it has only the Swedish card left. They will want to use that not least against the Americans, says Magnus Christianson, senior lecturer in military science at the Norwegian Defense Academy.

At the same time that the US representatives were delighted with the new NATO member, they were extraordinarily clear in their message about Sweden. Both President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Hungary and Turkey to also ratify Sweden’s request as soon as possible.

– Blinken said on Wednesday that Sweden is also a strong, capable and willing partner to join NATO.

during the week Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström (man) and Anthony Blinken met with Turkish representatives.

The Swedish position is that the criteria set out in the memorandum have been met. I have the impression that Sweden has backed away from the negotiating table and says that this is now an internal issue within NATO. Magnus Christianson says that as the Americans become more visibly involved, it looks like the Turks may want to go through with the F16 deal.

The issue of F16 fighter jets has been on the table before in the US-Turkish talks over Sweden’s NATO membership. Türkiye wants the US Congress to vote in favor of such a deal.

– There are several negotiation tables, one with Türkiye and Sweden stopped. Magnus Christianson says that it is about Turkey and the United States that there seems to be a process, but there is also one in the US Congress where the amount of surrender to Turkey is being discussed.

Turkey has not yet fallen into any major discontent over its opposition to Sweden’s membership in NATO. But the leader of the defense alliance seemed to be becoming more blunt in his statements. During Wednesday, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg reiterated several times that Sweden had done what it committed to in the agreement between Finland, Sweden and Turkey.

NATO’s expectations are that Sweden will become a member at the latest in the Vilnius Summit this summer.

– The fact that Turkey allowed Finland to enter means that Erdogan is showing that it is not impossible to negotiate with him, while he still has a negotiating advantage. They managed to eat the cake and keep it, says Aras Lind, an analyst in the Foreign Policy Institute’s Middle East program.

This feature could come in handy in terms of domestic and foreign policy for a while to come.

– Turkey may want to leave a card to play, if it is against the United States, against NATO in general regarding northern Syria or domestic politics in the election campaign, says Aras Lind.

President of Finland Sauli Niinisto He emphasized that he did not consider Finland’s membership complete until Sweden was also allowed to enter NATO. The first thing Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto did on the podium when Finland’s entry became official was to endorse the Swedish application.

On the one hand, it is good for Sweden that Finland is now a member of NATO.

– This will be Finland’s second priority, the first being the integration of national security into NATO. But this is also a matter of national security for them, so Finland will be a strong ambassador for Sweden, says Magnus Christianson.