In the first round of the French parliamentary elections last weekend, President Macron’s Alliance Together (the group) and the newly formed left-wing alliance Newbies garnered the same amount of support among voters.
Now, the two blocs are facing each other in more than half of France’s 577 total constituencies. The rule of the president’s majority in the worshipers is at stake.
– Since it is in the supreme interest of the nation, I want to persuade you to give the country a stable majority. . . There is nothing worse than adding French chaos to all the chaos in the world, the president said earlier this week.
Perfect for fights
If the majority on which Macron’s government depends disappears, it will have to negotiate with parts of the opposition to bypass the intended reforms.
If the loss is significant – and the left is a bang – Macron may have to appoint radical left-wing leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon as prime minister.
In what is called “co-existence,” the president is then forced to share executive power with an opposing government. The balance of power shifts from the President’s Elysee Palace to the Parliament House on the other side of the Seine.
Other than that, Nupes is likely to be the largest opposition group, which means that one should at least appoint the important position as chair of the Finance Committee.
Melenchon came third by a narrow margin in the spring presidential election. Then he burst into battle in a “third round”. In the run-up to the parliamentary elections, the French called for his appointment as head of government.
The French left is cooperating for the first time in 25 years, since the traditionally large but now hard-hit Socialist Party (PS) agreed to stand behind Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
The reborn left is shaking, but there are no left voters left. When the parties ran separately in the last election, they got a total of about as many votes as they got as allies on Sunday.
According to forecasts, Together also has more opportunities than the left to attract voters who are not their own.
“Patriots” to Paris
Voters stream to the far right. Marine Le Pen’s National Assembly (RN) party increased the most votes in the first round.
The RN has found it difficult to assert itself in France’s majority voting system, which is designed to promote parties that can attract voters on a broad front. But the nationalists are now likely to cross that barrier and form their own parliamentary group, which they have only done once before.
Party candidates face crucial duels in about 200 electoral districts and Le Pen says he sees an opportunity to send a “very large group of patriots” to Paris. Her presidential rival, the more radical Eric Zemmour, tried to pressure his own state on the Riviera, but lost to RN.
This weekend, turnout was lower than in any previous parliamentary elections. Above all, many of those who voted for Le Pen in the presidential election stayed home.
Who chooses whom?
Just as in a presidential election, many voters will have to choose between alternatives that they don’t really want to vote for.
The big question is what RN voters do when they have to choose between a Macronist and a socialist. Le Pen does not want to direct them in any direction, because both sides, according to her, want to destroy France in different ways.
Socialists are also opposed to nationalists. Prime Minister Elizabeth Bourne, who also has firearms when it comes to the left, says no one should vote for the RN:
For Nobis: If we’re dealing with a candidate who doesn’t respect republican values, insults our police, and demands that we no longer support Ukraine, which wants to leave Europe, well, we’re not going to vote for it.
Jean-Luc Melenchon wants to form a “united front” against the president, but at the same time stresses that left-wing voters should not vote for the National Front party.
France holds elections for the National Assembly every five years, a few weeks after the presidential election. The National Assembly is the lower house of Parliament and 577 members will be elected to seats there. They are elected in individual constituencies across the country.
In order to actually be elected in the first round, a candidate needs to get half of the votes in his or her constituency. When the first round was held last Sunday, June 12, only five candidates succeeded.
In the remaining 572 districts, a decisive round will be held on Sunday, June 19, between the two candidates who received the most support. If any additional candidate has the support of at least 12.5 percent of the constituency’s voters, he or she can also run. This happened in a few constituencies.
It is noteworthy that the numbers of the Ministry of the Interior and the French media differ, as they make different assessments of the groups to which some of the candidates are expected to belong.
Traditionally, the incumbent president is supported by a majority in parliament and thus able to elect a prime minister who can follow his political line. But if the opposition controls the council, it is he who decides who will sit in the government.
This happened three times in the Fifth Republic of France – twice under President François Mitterrand (1986-88 and 1993-1995) and again under Jacques Chirac (1997-2002).
In the French parliamentary elections, there are several major coalitions that make up it, but in some cases also individual parties. In addition to the major blocs, a handful of independent candidates and a number of the outer left wing are expected to win a number of seats. Here are the four largest listed blocs that are expected to hold the most seats in the National Assembly:
President Macron’s alliance balances in the political center. His party is made up of Republiken på väg (LREM) and a number of smaller parties, including the Democratic Movement (Modem) and Horizons (Horizons). Today it has a large majority in the National Assembly.
The New Environmental and Social Federation of the People (Nupes)
The newly formed Left Alliance was led by the radical Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Among these are his party, France Indomitable (LFI), the wounded force, the Socialist Party (PS), the Green Party (EÉLV) and the Communist Party (PCF), as well as some smaller left-wing parties. Four Nupes candidates won their constituencies last weekend, all in the Paris region.
Republicans (LR), with allies
The traditional right-wing flag bearers continue to be ignored by voters (about 11 percent voted for them last week) and will lose many seats. But the party has a broad enough profile and local roots to win in many constituencies. However, the Conservatives currently lack a clear leadership figure.
The National Assembly (National Assembly, RN)
Marine Le Pen’s nationalist party, which is defending itself. He stopped the outstretched hand of the Reconquête movement, far-right rival Eric Zemmour. RN has advanced in over 200 constituencies, but is believed to be able to win only a small portion of them. However, the party is expected to form its own group in the National Assembly for the first time since 1986 (and then it happened thanks to a one-off attempt with proportional elections).
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