In the middle of this month, the annual mission of experts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Poland, which reviewed our economy under art, ended. Fourth of the statutes of the International Monetary Fund.
The IMF positively assesses the current state of the Polish economy, and also emphasizes the good prospects for its growth in the coming years, while reducing the indicators of the general government deficit.
The International Monetary Fund also positively evaluated the activities of the Polish government in supporting the economy in connection with the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, in particular the mobilization of more than 250 billion PLN, which was in the form of various financial instruments that went to entrepreneurs and employees.
Minimizing the negative effects of the pandemic
According to the International Monetary Fund, the significant financial support provided by the government to entrepreneurs, as well as strong economic foundations, allowed to reduce the negative effects of the epidemic and allowed to accelerate the economic recovery.
Expression of these actions is expected to exceed 5 percent. GDP – economic growth this year and one of the lowest levels of unemployment among all EU member states (3.5% according to the EU methodology).
At the same time, despite the large additional budget expenditures related to supporting the economy and the health care system in connection with combating the effects of Covid-19, the general government deficit at the end of this year will reach 2.9%. GDP and public debt 56% of GDP.
Inflation will also be under control
Let us remind you that in mid-October, autumn the so-called main report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the world economy with forecasts of key macroeconomic figures for individual countries.
In the Word Economic Outlook, the forecast for our country for the period 2021-2022 is very optimistic not only regarding GDP growth, unemployment, but also inflation, which, according to forecasts of the International Monetary Fund, in Poland will decrease significantly.
According to this report, Poland’s GDP growth was 5.1 percent. In 2021 similarly 5.1 per cent. In 2022, the unemployment rate as measured by the number of unemployed but actively seeking work compared to all people of working age will be 3.5%. in 2021 and only 3.2 per cent. in 2022.
According to IMF forecasts, inflation will also be under control, which in recent months has approached 8%, and its average annual value in 2021 will be about 5%, in 2022 it will be 3.3%, and at the end of 2022 it will be so. Only 2.6 percent, so it would be in line with the inflation target set by the Monetary Policy Committee (2.5 percent +/- 1 percent).
Debt reduction relative to GDP
In turn, the Ministry of Finance itself emphasizes the reduction of the deficit of the public finance sector and public debt in relation to GDP, despite the need to launch significant additional budget expenditures to support the economy and the health care system in relation to the effects of the economy. COVID-19 pandemic.
According to the data of the Ministry of Finance, public debt in relation to GDP (according to the Polish methodology) will decrease from 47.8%. in 2020 to 45.4 per cent. In the current year, to 43.8 per cent. in 2022 and up to 40.3 per cent. in 2025.
In turn, according to the EU methodology, this debt relative to GDP will decrease from 57.5%. 2020, to 57.0 percent in the current year, up to 56.6 percent. In 2022, then at a much faster rate to 52.9%. In 2025 (this discrepancy is due to the fact that the EU methodology also covers public expenditures related to the fight against Covid-19 implemented by the Gospodarstwa Krajowego Bank, as well as by the Polish Development Fund).
At the same time, according to the Ministry of Finance, public debt servicing costs relative to GDP will decrease from 1.03%. In 2021 to 0.95 per cent. in 2022 and about 0.88-0.89 percent. in 2025.
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