NATO Meeting Under Trump: The Stakes Are Too High

NNATO is celebrating its 75th anniversary at the summit in Washington, of which Sweden is now a member.

In the background lie the challenges of the future and a big question: What will happen in the long run if Donald Trump becomes president?.

History is being made for both NATO and Sweden. The meeting, which begins on Tuesday, is an opportunity to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the defence alliance.

For the Swedish side, with Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson at the helm, this is the first time that a member has participated as a full member. However, one of the questions is what the status of the 75-year-old will be, and there are certainly no shortage of challenges at the moment.

Several factors

However, Kjell Engelbrecht, a professor of political science at the Norwegian Defence Academy, sees several positive factors: new additions from member states – Sweden and Finland – and the green light for a new secretary general in the Dutchman Mark Rutte.

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Engelbrecht's colleague, Lisbeth Agstam, associate professor of political science at the University of Gothenburg, highlights the fact that many NATO members are already increasing their defence budgets.

– Now you are investing a lot, it is not a question of how much, and you will see the value of that. From this perspective, you can say that NATO is more important than ever, as you say.

At the same time, one of the question marks is how the United States, the host of this week’s meeting, views the future of NATO, especially if Donald Trump is elected president this fall. Trump already threatened during his first term that the United States would withdraw. Since then, for example, geopolitical tensions surrounding Taiwan and China have increased, Kjell Engelbrecht points out.

A scenario is posed in which the United States shifts its military presence from Europe to the Asia-Pacific region to celebrate China. What will then remain in Europe?

– I have long noticed that the United States wants Europe to take care of its conventional defense, and this was already clear under Barack Obama. However, there should be an opportunity to send reinforcements, perhaps from the Navy, in the event of a conflict, but the Europeans must assume their responsibility, he says.

improbability

Lisbeth Agstam, for her part, believes that Trump is unlikely to pull the United States out of NATO.

– It's not something he can decide on his own, but it has to go through Congress. The likelihood is that he wants to cut US funding for NATO.

Then, eight years ago, Trump suggested that Europe had done too little, but now the situation is different, as Lisbeth Agstam points out:

– That was his big punching bag, above all against Germany and Angela Merkel, a weak Europe that does not invest in its defense, and we are not there now.

For the guest of honor in Washington, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, the concern is great about what a Trump victory will mean in terms of military funding. Zelensky stressed in an interview with Bloomberg that clarity is needed before the fall. Kjell Engelbrekt was blunt on the question:

– I think this may be the last time we see a support package like the one that was voted on in Congress. But Europe has to make up for it and I think people are starting to realize that. And that process will be accelerated.